A weekly, analyst-grade comparison of the manager's actual positions ($2,800 across AMZN, DFEOX) against passive Vanguard strategies. Every strategy was seeded a year ago with the same $2,286 so the only thing that differs is the strategy — and the fees.
A plain-English read of the numbers above — not financial advice. For an all-your-money decision, take this to a fee-only fiduciary and a tax professional.
Same $2,286 invested on 2025-06-02, total return (dividends reinvested), as of 2026-06-12. Manager value is net of the 1.4% advisory fee.
| Strategy | Value now | Return/yr | Volatility | Max DD | Sharpe | Beta | Fee | Exp. return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Total World ETF VT | $2,931 | +27.4% | 13.2% | -9.7% | 1.75 | 1.04 | 0.07% | 9.5% |
| Vanguard Total US Market ETF VTI | $2,909 | +26.4% | 12.5% | -8.9% | 1.77 | 1.03 | 0.03% | 9.4% |
| Vanguard 500 Index Admiral VFIAX | $2,897 | +25.9% | 12.3% | -8.9% | 1.77 | 1.00 | 0.04% | 9.3% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO | $2,896 | +25.9% | 12.2% | -8.9% | 1.77 | 1.00 | 0.03% | 9.3% |
| Money Manager (current) manager | $2,760 | +20.1% | 17.8% | -12.2% | 0.89 | 1.17 | 1.4% | 10.2% |
The manager concentrated a large position in Amazon.com — not at your request, but assuming that, given your past work at Amazon, you’d want the exposure. DFA US Core Equity 2 (DFEOX) is their core pick. This isolates that bet so it’s clear how much it has helped or hurt their record — both manager lines are net of the 1.4% advisory fee, on the same $2,286 stake.
| Scenario | Value today | Return/yr |
|---|---|---|
| Manager, full portfolio AMZN + DFEOX | $2,760 | +20.1% |
| Manager’s core pick, full stake ex-AMZN | $2,892 | +25.7% |
| The AMZN bet, on its own AMZN | $1,200 | +15.0% |
Each line is what the same starting capital became under that strategy. Dashed = manager (net of fee).
Same gross holdings, net of the advisory fee. The fee compounds against you every year, win or lose.
| Advisory fee | Value today | Cost of the fee |
|---|---|---|
| Gross (no fee) | $2,800 | — |
| 1.2%/yr | $2,764 | −$36 |
| 1.4%/yr (central) | $2,760 | −$40 |
| 1.5%/yr | $2,757 | −$43 |
To have matched Vanguard Total World ETF over this period, the manager could have charged at most -4.57%/yr. The assumed fee is 1.4%/yr.
Educated estimate only: CAPM expected return (risk-free 4.3% + beta × 5.0% equity premium) with a lognormal P10–P90 fan. Not a forecast of certainty.
Annualized return of a fixed, principled lineup over multiple trailing windows (up to 10 years), judged over long history — not ranked by last year’s winner, which would just select whatever recently outperformed. Each fund’s window shrinks to its available history; the manager’s own fund is tagged.
| Fund | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y | Since incept. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFA US Core Equity 2 DFEOX manager | +25.8% | +20.4% | +12.4% | +14.7% | +14.7% |
| Vanguard Total US Market VTI | +27.5% | +21.0% | +12.7% | +15.3% | +15.2% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 VOO | +27.1% | +21.3% | +13.9% | +15.8% | +15.7% |
| Avantis US Small Cap Value AVUV | +40.0% | +19.1% | +11.6% | +16.3% | +16.3% |
| Vanguard Total International VXUS | +31.5% | +18.6% | +8.7% | +10.3% | +10.0% |
| Vanguard Total Bond Market BND | +5.1% | +4.0% | +0.1% | +1.6% | +1.7% |
DFEOX is small/value-tilted, so beating a plain S&P 500 isn’t necessarily skill. This regresses its monthly return (net of fee) on market, size and value factors built from ETF proxies; positive SMB/HML loadings show the tilts, and alpha is what’s left over after them.
| Measure | Value | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual alpha (after fee) | -1.1% | t = -2.76 |
| Market (MKT) loading | 1.02 | |
| Size (SMB) loading | +0.07 | |
| Value (HML) loading | +0.12 | |
| R² · months | 99% | 121 |
A return edge means little if it’s within the noise. This compares the manager’s fund (net of fee) to VTI month by month.
Illustrative only — not tax advice. Assumes 40.0% of the portfolio is unrealized gain, taxed at 23.8% (long-term + NIIT), and that switching saves 1.4%/yr in fees. Edit these in strategies.json.
| One-time tax to liquidate & switch | $267 |
| Annual fee saving by switching | $38 |
| Years of savings to repay that tax | 6.9 years |
Probably the single biggest number in this whole question. On a hypothetical $500,000 growing at 7.0%/yr before fees, this is what the 1.4% advisory fee costs versus a ~0.0% index fund — illustrative, scaled to a realistic balance (edit illustration_value in strategies.json).
| Horizon | At 1.4% (mgr) | At 0.0% (index) | Fee cost | % of wealth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | $854,234 | $980,629 | $126,395 | 13% |
| 20 years | $1,459,432 | $1,923,266 | $463,834 | 24% |
| 30 years | $2,493,393 | $3,772,021 | $1,278,628 | 34% |
If cheap, buyable ETFs reproduce the manager’s fund, you keep the strategy and drop the fee. This fits DFEOX’s monthly returns with a low-cost ETF blend (best-fit weights over 81 months).
| ETF | Weight | Expense ratio |
|---|---|---|
| VTI | 85% | 0.0% |
| AVUV | 15% | 0.2% |
It isn’t only "manager vs DIY." A flat or hourly fiduciary charges the same dollars regardless of balance, so on a large portfolio it can cost a fraction of a percentage fee. Terminal wealth on $500,000 at 7.0%/yr under each cost structure.
| Horizon | %-of-assets | Flat fee | DIY index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | $854,234 | $925,447 | $980,629 |
| 20 years | $1,459,432 | $1,759,858 | $1,923,266 |
| 30 years | $2,493,393 | $3,396,353 | $3,772,021 |
The numbers above only see returns. A manager may add value the charts can’t — and the fee is worth it only if these clear the ~1.4%/yr gap — about $7,000/yr on a $500,000 balance. Treat this as a checklist for a fee-only fiduciary, not a verdict.
Behavioral coaching is the wild card: studies have estimated DIY investors give up ~1–2%/yr to mistimed buying and selling — which can rival the fee itself, for better or worse.
The best passive option's after-fee lead over the manager across 3 weekly snapshots since 2026-05-29. Above the dashed break-even line indexing is ahead; below it the manager is. Over this window the gap widened by $134 — now the index leads by $171.
The AI analyst write-up was not generated this run — either the ANTHROPIC_API_KEY secret is missing, or the API call failed (the exact reason is in the GitHub Actions log). Every number above is computed directly from market data and stands on its own, and the plain-English verdict is in the Bottom line card.
Last updated 2026-06-15 18:41:04 UTC. Data: Yahoo Finance (adjusted close). Rebuilds weekly.
This page uses stand-in dollar amounts, not real balances. It is a personal research tool for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not predict future results. Forward projections are model-based estimates under stated assumptions and will be wrong to some degree. Fund expense ratios are reflected in fund prices; the advisory fee is modeled as an additional drag on the managed portfolio. Verify all figures independently before acting.